The 2026 midterm election polls show Democrats holding an advantage one week before the November 3 elections. According to EFE, the opposition party has an opportunity to regain control of both chambers of Congress, although the battle for the Senate remains more competitive.
An analysis by Decision Desk HQ, based on polling averages, estimates a 79% probability of Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives and a 57% probability of taking the Senate.
These forecasts increased by two and one percentage points, respectively, compared with the previous week. The figures represent estimated probabilities of winning control, not voting intention percentages or final election results.
Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives for two-year terms. Republicans currently hold 219 seats, compared with 214 for Democrats.
Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach the 218 required for a majority. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Democrats 51.1% support, compared with 42.8% for Republicans.
Additionally, the Cook Political Report shifted its ratings in 19 congressional districts in favor of Democrats. According to EFE, its projections indicate that the opposition could secure around 220 seats considered virtually assured.
Republicans face challenges in Midwestern states that supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election, where dissatisfaction over the economy, gasoline prices, and the war in Iran has increased.
In the Senate, 35 of the chamber's 100 seats are up for election. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while the Democratic caucus controls 47.
To secure a majority, Democrats must retain their existing seats and flip four Republican-held seats. Polls indicate closely contested races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.
All these seats are currently held by Republicans except Michigan. Control of the Senate is also significant because the chamber is responsible for confirming Supreme Court justices.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 1.8 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 2.5 points.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson holds a 1.2-point lead over Republican Senator Susan Collins. These narrow polling margins reflect competitive races rather than confirmed election outcomes.
Democrats are favored in 20 of the 36 gubernatorial elections. If those forecasts materialize, the party could regain a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010.
Xavier Becerra leads in California, while Kathy Hochul leads in New York. Republicans Greg Abbott and Byron Donalds lead their respective gubernatorial races in Texas and Florida.
Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin remain closely contested. Ohio has shifted toward Democrats, while the Cook Political Report considers Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins the favorite in Alaska.
Trump is preparing campaign rallies in Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, Florida, Kansas, and Iowa to mobilize his MAGA voter base.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published Monday puts Trump's approval rating at 32%, a slight increase from the previous week's 31%. The 2026 midterm elections are increasingly being viewed as a referendum on his administration.
