Midterm election polls. In three weeks, on November 3, Americans will go to the polls in midterm elections that are being interpreted as a referendum on President Donald Trump 's management and will determine whether Republicans maintain their current majority in Congress.
The polls currently paint a favorable scenario for the Democratic opposition in both chambers, which has led Trump to become fully involved in the campaign, with almost daily electoral rallies in decisive states.
The House of Representatives will renew all 435 seats for a two-year term. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority of 219 seats compared to the Democrats' 214, so the opposition needs a net gain of three seats to take control. According to the average of polls by RealClearPolitics, Democrats are clearly leading the vote intention for the House, with 50.2% compared to the Republicans, who obtain 41.9%. The analysis portal Cook Political Report points out that, with current trends, Democrats could turn 18 electoral districts in their favor and achieve a majority of more than 230 seats.
All recent presidents have lost control of the House in midterm elections, including Trump himself in his first term.
On November 3, 35 of the 100 Senate seats will also be renewed, where Republicans have a majority of 53 senators, compared to the 47 Democrats. Senators, who represent states, have six-year terms and have powers such as confirming Supreme Court judges and members of the presidential cabinet.
According to polls, the race is tight in seven states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. All the seats at stake are currently occupied by Republican senators, except for Michigan, which is Democratic. If Democrats were to take four Republican seats and maintain their own, they would achieve a majority in the Upper House.
One of the races that has garnered the most attention is in Texas, considered for years a Republican stronghold, but where Democrat James Talarico is now leading by three points over Ken Paxton, according to RealClearPolitics. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, from the more progressive wing of the Democrats, is leading with a 2.7-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers; and in Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson is beating incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins by 1.2 points.
Additionally, 36 states will elect their governors, including the most populous in the country: California and New York, where Democrats Xavier Becerra and Kathy Hochul are favorites, and Texas and Florida, where Republicans Greg Abbott and Byron Donalds are leading. The race is open in the governor's race in four states: Georgia, Nevada, and Ohio, currently in Republican hands, and Wisconsin, governed by a Democrat.
Trump has become personally involved in the campaign to mobilize the most loyal base of the MAGA movement («Make America Great Again»), although his popularity in the country as a whole is at a low, around 38% according to poll averages. This is one of the lowest approval levels recorded for a president shortly before midterm elections. A recent Pew Center poll reflects a decline in trust in Trump's economic management: only 35% trust that he will make good decisions in that area, which has become the main issue of the campaign.
