With less than a month remaining before the November 3 midterm elections, polls point to a challenging environment for President Donald Trump and Republicans. Democrats are gaining ground across several measures, while the president is losing support among Latino voters.
The elections will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, along with governorships and numerous state and local offices. EFE notes that the cost of living, gas prices, and broader economic dissatisfaction are among the factors shaping the contest.
According to data compiled by EFE, the RealClearPolitics polling average puts Democrats at 50.6%, compared with 42.3% for Republicans in the generic congressional ballot.
The outlook is also favorable to Democrats in the Cook Political Report's analysis. The publication says Republicans are on track to lose their majority and estimates Democrats could finish with between 220 and 230 seats, although several weeks remain before Election Day.
In the 37 competitive districts analyzed directly by Cook Political Report, however, the gap is considerably narrower: Democrats stand at 49%, compared with 47% for Republicans.
EFE notes that retaking the Senate presents a greater challenge for Democrats, who need to flip Republican-held seats while also defending their own.
Recent New York Times/Siena polls show competitive races in traditionally Republican states. Data compiled by RealClearPolling show Democrats ahead in Alaska and Ohio, while the contest in Iowa remains virtually tied.
Gubernatorial races are also close in several states, according to information provided by EFE, in an election that will serve as a measure of support for Trump's presidency two years after his return to the White House.
The picture among Latino voters represents another warning sign for Republicans. An NBC News and Noticias Telemundo poll found that 69% of registered Latino voters disapprove of Trump's job performance, while 27% approve.
In addition, 59% prefer Democratic control of Congress, compared with 35% who favor Republican control. The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters from September 21 to 28 and has a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points. The economy is one of the main sources of dissatisfaction: 78% disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living, while 74% disapprove of his handling of the economy. Nearly two-thirds say his policies have hurt their economic circumstances.
NBC News, however, offers an important caveat: the shift among Latino voters does not necessarily mean enthusiasm for the Democratic Party has increased.
Although Democrats currently hold a 24-point advantage over Republicans among Latinos on control of Congress, the party's image has not improved. The shift appears to be driven primarily by opposition to Trump's presidency and concerns about the economy.
With less than a month remaining before the elections, the data point to a more favorable environment for Democrats, but polls remain a snapshot in time and cannot determine the outcome of the November 3 elections on their own.
