A Times/Siena poll shows a wide Democratic lead among likely Hispanic voters, but it remains unclear how those national preferences will translate into individual districts in November.
Democrats lead Republicans 64% to 29% among likely Hispanic voters on the congressional ballot, according to Times/Siena data cited by EFE.
Hispanic vote heading into the US midterm elections: Democrats 53% and Republicans 29%, a 24-point lead, according to YouGov's September 2026 figures reported by DatoWorld. https://t.co/otor8wfnSN
— El Nuevo País (@ElNuevoPais2026) September 24, 2026
The contrast with 2024 is significant: before that presidential election, Times/Siena recorded only a seven-point lead for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump among Hispanic voters.
Now, the poll conducted from September 8 to 13 also places Trump's approval rating among Hispanic voters at 26%, according to EFE.
In Texas, a separate UnidosUS poll found that 54% of Latino voters surveyed across five competitive districts planned to support the Democratic candidate, compared with 27% for the Republican.
That study also found that the cost of living and inflation ranked among voters' leading concerns, alongside other issues including immigration policy.
The situation is especially relevant because Republicans redrew Texas congressional districts after their gains among Hispanic voters.
Several districts incorporated large Latino electorates as the new boundaries were drawn to create more favorable conditions for Republican candidates.
The 28th District illustrates that uncertainty: it remains a heavily Hispanic district, and Trump carried its redrawn boundaries by roughly ten points in 2024.
However, the district estimates cited by The New York Times are not individual polls conducted in those districts and should not be treated as forecasts of the November results.
In Florida, the analysis cited by EFE estimates a possible 21-point Democratic advantage in the 27th District, represented by Republican María Elvira Salazar.
The Miami-Dade district has a significant Cuban American population, and Trump carried the district by about 15 points in the 2024 presidential election.
The figures do not allow the change to be attributed automatically to immigration policy. The economy, housing, healthcare, and the cost of living also remain important concerns among Hispanic voters.
Texas offers other signs of competition: Democrats have targeted several congressional districts with large Hispanic electorates.
But Latino voting behavior is not uniform. The 2024 results included voters who supported Trump for president while backing Democratic candidates in other races on the same ballot.
The polls show a substantial change from 2024, but they do not establish how Hispanic voters will ultimately cast their ballots or how strongly national trends will appear in individual districts.
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SOURCE: EFE / Texas Tribune
