More than 690,000 Americans have already voted in at least 29 states. The early numbers show higher Democratic participation, but they still represent only a small share of the electorate.
More than 690,000 Americans have already cast their ballots a month before the November 3 midterm elections, according to data collected by CNN, AP, and Catalist.
Why it matters: The early numbers show stronger Democratic mobilization than at this point in 2024, although they still do not indicate who will win.
It is estimated that early and mail-in voting seems to favor the Democratic opposition a month before the legislative midterm elections.
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In Iowa, Democrats account for 67% of ballot requests, compared with 54% at the same point in 2024.
Pennsylvania stands at 66%, compared with 62% in 2024; Maine reaches 57%, compared with 53%; and North Carolina rises from 36% to 42%.
However, there is an important contrast: except for Iowa, those states had a higher Democratic share of requests at this point in 2022.
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Requesting or returning a ballot can help measure participation and mobilization, but it does not reveal who a person voted for because ballots are secret.
In addition, Republicans could rely more heavily on other voting methods or cast a greater share of their ballots during the final weeks and on November 3 itself.
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The limit: The approximately 690,000 votes recorded so far represent a small fraction of the nearly 57 million early votes cast in 2022.
The profile of early voters also does not perfectly reflect the overall electorate. Older voters have a particularly strong presence in mail-in voting.
Virginia offers one of the clearest pictures so far because it has recorded a significant volume of both in-person and mail-in early voting.
Localities where Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump by more than 20 points in 2024 have reached 78% of the participation rate recorded at this point then; areas where Trump won by more than 20 points are at 61%.
Both districts are currently represented by Republicans, Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans, and will feature competitive races for the House of Representatives.
The data describe who is participating early, not how the vote will ultimately be distributed once millions of Americans have voted.
The picture can change as more states open their in-person early-voting 2026 periods. In 47 states and Washington, D.C., voters can cast ballots early without needing a justification.
What's next: Participation will increase throughout October, and Republicans could narrow the current differences as Election Day approaches.
For now, the records point to higher Democratic mobilization in several states, but the full significance of those numbers can only be assessed once participation becomes much broader.
